How will the recession affect crime rates in Greater Manchester?

Safer Communities


Chris Fox, Kevin Albertson, Mark Ellison, Tom Martin



This paper aims to explore what impact the recent economic recession and ongoing economic difficulties experienced in the UK might have on crime in Greater Manchester.


In this paper, we summarise existing literature on the relationship between crime trends and economic trends. Then, drawing on data on crime, the economy and other relevant socio-demographic trends in Greater Manchester some broad conclusions are drawn about likely crime trends in Greater Manchester over the coming years.


The paper concludes that recent reductions in crime might not be sustained, with crime rates in Manchester City’s most vulnerable council area levelling out or even rising. This is particularly likely of the rate of violent crime.

Research limitations/implications

This work is part of an ongoing project based at Manchester Metropolitan University to predict future crime trends in Greater Manchester.


This paper will be of value to police forces and local authorities, principally when conducting their strategic assessments.


Crimes, Forecast, Economy, Greater Manchester, Recession, United Kingdom

Paper type

Research paper

Publication link

Chris Fox, Kevin Albertson, Mark Ellison, Tom Martin, (2011) "How will the recession affect crime rates in Greater Manchester?", Safer Communities, Vol. 10 Iss: 3, pp.17 - 30

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