Hotspots policing backfires when offenders know
A new paper co-authored by PERU's Henry Partidge and published in the Journal of Quantitative Criminology (Ariel & Partridge, 2016) presents the results of a randomised control trial of the deterrent effect of hotspots policing at bus stops. The research found that hotspots policing at bus stops - and potentially other “micro places” - has a limited deterrent effect if patrol patterns are predictable. Police agencies therefore need to randomise their deployments both spatially and temporally to increase the unpredictability of enforcement.
The paper can be found here: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10940-016-9312-y
Ariel, B. & Partridge, H. (2016) Predictable Policing: Measuring the Crime Control Benefits of Hotspots Policing at Bus Stops. Journal of Quantitative Criminology. doi:10.1007/s10940-016-9312-y